By Oğuzhan Albayrak, WLC Member. (Photo: Al Jazeera)
Turkey’s political landscape has once again been thrown into chaos following a sweeping operation targeting the opposition, further destabilizing the nation’s already fragile democracy.
The “İmamoğlu Case”: A Political Earthquake
On March 19, Turkish authorities detained Istanbul Mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu, President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s most formidable political rival, as part of an investigation into alleged corruption and terrorism links.
According to the state-run Anadolu Agency, prosecutors have also issued arrest warrants for approximately 100 individuals, including business figures and journalists. In an apparent attempt to curb dissent, authorities banned demonstrations in Istanbul for four days, while the NetBlocks internet observatory confirmed that Turkey had restricted access to multiple social media platforms early Wednesday.
Despite the crackdown, crowds gathered outside the Mayor’s Office, a clear sign of mounting public anger.
A Politically Motivated Crackdown
İmamoğlu’s arrest follows the controversial revocation of his university diploma by Istanbul University just a day earlier, effectively barring him from running for president under Turkish law, which requires all presidential candidates to hold a university degree. The university declared the degrees of 28 individuals, including İmamoğlu, void, citing an “obvious error”—a decision widely seen as a politically motivated maneuver.
A Direct Threat to Erdoğan’s Rule
İmamoğlu, a popular opposition leader from the center-left Republican People’s Party (CHP), Turkey’s main opposition party, was expected to be officially nominated as the CHP’s presidential candidate this weekend. Instead, he now faces two separate investigations: one related to bribery and tender rigging, and another alleging ties to the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK)—a group designated as a terrorist organization by Turkey, the U.S., and the EU.
Having twice defeated Erdoğan’s ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) candidates—in 2019 and 2024—to win Istanbul’s mayoralty, İmamoğlu has emerged as a serious political threat. This is particularly significant given that Erdoğan himself launched his political career as Istanbul’s mayor in the 1990s.
With these latest developments, Turkey’s opposition finds itself at a critical crossroads as Erdoğan’s government tightens its grip ahead of the next election. The situation raises urgent concerns about the future of democracy and political freedoms in the country.
A Pattern of Systematic Suppression
The Turkish government is now deploying against the CHP the same repressive tactics it previously used against the pro-Kurdish and liberal opposition. By linking CHP to terrorism, the government seeks to delegitimize its main rival. This is a playbook we have seen before.
Since the Gezi Park protests of 2013, Turkey’s democratic backslide has been accelerating. The collapse of the Kurdish peace process in 2015 marked a turning point, replacing dialogue with state repression and militarization. The 2016 coup attempt became Erdoğan’s pretext to consolidate power further, famously calling it “a gift from God.”
For years, opposition figures, journalists, academics, and activists have been imprisoned, silenced, or forced into exile. Independent media outlets have been shut down, universities have been transformed into government-controlled institutions, and the justice system has been reduced to a political tool.
This is Not a Democracy. This is a Regime.
Erdoğan’s latest crackdown confirms that he has no intention of stepping down. He is carefully crafting a lifelong presidency, ensuring that opposition forces are either neutralized or eliminated before they can pose a real challenge.
There is no longer an independent judiciary to safeguard fundamental rights. Parliament has become a rubber-stamp institution. Prosecutors and judges take orders from the government. The police operate as an extension of the ruling party. Even international court rulings—such as those from the European Court of Human Rights—are ignored.
The International Dimension: The West Will Turn a Blind Eye
The international community is unlikely to challenge Erdoğan’s increasing authoritarianism. Western powers, particularly the EU and the U.S., have shifted priorities. Turkey’s strategic role in regional conflicts and its importance in managing migration far outweigh concerns over human rights and democracy.
Europe, still reeling from the Ukraine war, sees Erdoğan as a necessary ally. NATO’s expansion and military stability concerns have made the West overlook Turkey’s domestic repression. The EU, fearful of a new refugee crisis, prefers an authoritarian Erdoğan who keeps migrants within Turkish borders over a democratic upheaval that could destabilize the region.
A Defining Moment for Turkey
The opposition’s strategy of relying solely on elections has proven ineffective. By the time elections arrive, the government has already manipulated the system in its favor. Erdoğan has mastered the art of dividing and weakening the opposition while presenting himself as the only stabilizing force.
Would İmamoğlu’s diploma have been annulled if the opposition had been stronger, more unified, and more vocal? Would Erdoğan have survived countless scandals if mass protests had forced real accountability? The answer is no.
The opposition must finally recognize that Erdoğan is not just a political rival—he is the architect of a tyranny. Relying on conventional election strategies alone will not be enough to challenge him. The crackdown on İmamoğlu and other opposition figures must serve as a wake-up call.
Turkey is now at a turning point. Either the opposition mobilizes mass resistance, unites fractured groups, and pushes back against the systemic erosion of democracy—or Erdoğan will continue to cement his rule, making future elections little more than a formality. This is no longer just about İmamoğlu. This is about whether Turkey will remain a democracy at all.
